When it comes to the big four categories at the Grammys (Album of the Year, Song of the Year, Record of the Year and Best New Artist), none is as much of a crapshoot as Best new Artist. Known for major upsets, in recent years sure favorites like Nicki Minaj, Drake, Ed Sheeran and Frank Ocean have lost to more obscure and bizarre picks, like Esperanza Spalding (2011), Bon Iver (2012) and fun. (2013). So, really, this category can go a number of ways.
For the 2015 Grammys, the field is wide and varied. You have two alternative rock acts (Haim, Bastille), soul (Sam Smith), rap (Iggy Azalea) and country (Brandy Clark). So, how do you even make a prediction when literally any one of these acts could take home that golden gramophone?
Even though it may be a major task, that doesn't mean we shouldn't try. So, let's take a look ahead of the Grammys, which are set to take place on Feb. 8.
NOMINEES:
Iggy Azalea
Bastille
Brandy Clark
Haim
Sam Smith
WHO SHOULD WIN: Sam Smith
Even though Best New Artist is the least predictable Grammy category, this year's award really is Sam Smith's to lose. He's the golden child of this year's awards circuit, notching the most nominations this year (with six). He leads with not just the most nominations but with a nod in each of the four major categories. So, even if he may lose Album of the Year to the unstoppable Beyoncé, as a new artist, this seems like an easy pick.
Smith has the critical acclaim and the name recognition to be able to land this award. But, acclaim isn't the only criteria that makes Smith a deserving winner of Best New Artist. Smith is a well-rounded artist, proving he can do the pop thing with Disclosure but also proving that he can create the most emotionally gripping music since Adele's 21 (and Adele won Best New Artist in 2009). Smith's debut album In The Lonely Hour and his smash single "Stay With Me" are universally relatable and listened to. I dare you to find someone who hasn't shed a small tear while listening to the emotional please of Smith.
WHO WILL WIN: Iggy Azalea (Maybe?)
Even though Smith has the accolades to clinch Best New Artist, really, this category is insane. So, if we have to go with who will win, let's throw our eggs into the biggest artist basket, which goes to Iggy Azalea. Over Smith, Clark, Haim and Bastille, Azalea has had the biggest year, with three top 10 singles and one of the biggest songs of the year, "Fancy." The Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences is still notably hesitant to let rappers win, well, anything, but Azalea is such a safe bet within the genre, they can look progressive while really sticking to that ol' popular status quo. For reference: see Macklemore & Ryan Lewis' win for Best New Artist last year.
And though it seems like Azalea may have the best odds for this trophy, really, it could go to anyone. We already went over the reasons why Smith should win, so he's actually a pretty fair bet for this prediction, too.
Haim seems like the least likely winner, but so did Bon Iver in 2012. If the Grammy voters want to go with what all the cool kids (and Taylor Swift) are into, then yeah, maybe this sisterly trio could steal this award away in a shock. Bastille has some of the same arguments as Haim, but with a little more success ("Pompeii" had a lengthy run on the Billboard Hot 100 and peaked at No. 5).
Brandy Clark, a rising star in the country world with her stunning 2014 album 12 Stories could be the first win for her genre since Zac Brown Band in 2010. She doesn't quite have the crossover success as ZBB, but in time, Clark could be a major name and if the Academy chooses to recognize that, it would be an interesting move but it feels unlikely.
Basically, this could go any which way. So, don't take this category to Vegas.
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