Music Times has been all over the Oscar music categories today, and we encourage you to check out Joseph 'DeMille' Degroot's rankings over the nominees for Best Original Song. This piece however doesn't take quality into consideration, no, but something much more important: betting logistics. We're not going to tell you what he picked (again, you'll need to check that out. We were surprised). For now, consider the official odds on the five nominations-or don't. We've got breaking developments that may swing which way the final vote ends up going. Check out our hunches and keep in mind that we're not legally liable for your foolishly believing us.
Odds provided by Gold Derby.
01) "Glory" by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn (9/5)
Shouldn't be any surprises here: Just like in the Best Original Score category, Oscar voters like modern music forms, and when we say "modern" we mean "urban." That's why quality songs such as "Lose Yourself" and less quality songs such as "It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp" take home trophies. John Legend and Common's bring the best of both worlds to "Glory," a soulful single incorporating both hip-hop and, well, soul to the Selma soundtrack. Considering its recent Golden Globes win, it was already the obvious favorite going into the nominations. Those odds only got a boost due to politics this morning: A failure for any of the cast to earn best acting nominations, and no nominations for director Ava DuVernay have stirred accusations of racial inequality among the Academy...considering the lack of a person of color nominated for any of the acting awards doesn't help the counterargument. Expect "Glory" to win as an attempt to cool tempers. We truly can't imagine anything else taking home the Oscar here.
02) "Lost Stars" by Gregg Alexander (4/1)
Maybe there's something they know that we don't know...but we're confused as to why "Lost Stars" from Begin Again got so high on bookies' minds. It's one of the more successful songs on the list in terms of actual Billboard tracking...getting up to no. 83 on the Hot 100 (higher than all but one of its competition) and it has, we'd argue, the most popular vocalist among the those featured in nominated songs (Adam Levine of Maroon 5). No. 83 on the Hot 100 is one thing but it sure ain't no. 5 on the Hot 100, which is what last year's winner "Let It Go" reached. If there's a possibility, for the sake of argument, of betting for no. 2 overall, we wouldn't take this single because...
03) "Everything Is Awesome" by Shawn Patterson (5/1)
The comical track from the equally comical The LEGO Movie might not seem like a strong candidate for Best Original Song but all the pieces are there: It's the hottest single among the nominees, peaking at no. 57 on the Hot 100. It has a combination of well-enough established names in The Lonely Island and Tegan and Sara. Plus it's got politics on its side now: Although Selma and its lack of nominations is getting most of the negative attention, an interestingly large segment of social media is equally enraged that The Lego Movie didn't earn a nod for Best Animated Movie (and we'd have to agree). If it weren't for the outrage surrounding Selma we might even point to "Everything Is Awesome" as a potential apology-pick.
04) "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" by Glen Campbell (20/1)
Just as we're somewhat surprised at all the faith bookies have in Gregg Alexander's "Lost Stars," we're equally surprised that Glen Campbell's chances for "I'm Not Gonna Miss You" hasn't gotten better odds yet. Context is everything: Campbell is a country legend who was diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease during 2011. Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me, is a documentary tracking the icon during his farewell tour, ending his run during November of 2012. The song is an original for the tour, the devastating "I'm Not Gonna Miss You," a play on both traditional cowboy heartbreak tropes and his own mental condition. The Academy is about as sentimental as it gets—just watch the "in memorial" segment every year—so again, politics aside, this last tug-at-the-heart strings by Campbell is right down their alley.
05) "Grateful" by Diane Warren (100/1)
As Degroot mentioned in his rankings of these songs, some picks that were predicted to make Oscar appearances—Lana Del Rey's "Big Eyes" (14/1 odds yesterday) and Lorde's "Yellow Flicker Beat" (33/1)—didn't make the cut. What song sung by a pop star did get a nomination? The relatively unknown "Grateful," as performed by Rita Ora for the film Beyond The Lights. Normally, politics aside, we would rule this as the obvious don't-pick (take a look at those odds again). Then again, Academy sympathy might come into play: Songwriter Diane Warren has gotten nominated for the category five previous times without a win. It's bound to happen one of these years. Just not 2015.
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